Belmont Stakes live on Sky Sports: Runner guide and expert verdict as Forte returns to take on National Treasure

The third leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, is previewed by US guru Peter Fornatale, who analyses all nine runners – live on Sky Sports Racing.

This year’s running marks the return to the races of Forte, the horse who was scratched the morning of the Kentucky Derby.

Will he step up and establish himself as the most talented colt of his generation? Or will it be another horse who wears the blanket of carnations after the 12-furlong test?

Let’s look at the field from the rail out…

TAPIT SHOES (1) has a proper 12-furlong dirt pedigree, being by Tapit out of a Flower Alley dam. He’s got a good running style for the Belmont as he’s got some speed and is also kind of a grinder. He’s worked well since the last but has a lot to find in terms of figures against some seriously talented runners. Making the frame would be an impressive accomplishment, but he’ll be a very big price for those interested.

TAPIT TRICE (2) is one of a couple in here with a past-performance page that simply have the look of a Belmont winner – horses with good back form coming straight from the Derby do well in this race, and he’s got the right bloodlines. He’s a quirky horse, who doesn’t seem to like running in behind his rivals, and from this draw, that possibility might be hard to avoid. At the same time, if he’s ever going to get the trip he seemingly needs, it might be against a single-digit field around the wide turns of Belmont Park. At the likely prices, I am slightly against, but he’d certainly be no surprise.

ARCANGELO (3) is an interesting item. The Peter Pan has been a useful prep for the Belmont at times, most recently for Tonalist back in 2014. I like how well Arcangelo closed into a slow pace last time, suggesting an abundance of stamina. He’s fast and progressive, and simply too big at current odds (I feel that NY morning line maker David Aragona’s educated guess of 8/1 is about right). Would be a great story as well as somehow no female trainer has ever won a Triple Crown race, a hoodoo Jena Antonucci is looking to defy.

NATIONAL TREASURE (4) was able to control an even pace in the Preakness against a small field and get the job done. He’s a likely leader here once again. Pedigree wise the 12 furlongs seems a stretch to me but the bigger issue might be the other speed signed on – it’s hard to imagine all of today’s rivals leaving him so much rope once again. I understand the case for him but I’m squarely against.

IL MIRACOLO (5) got back to winning ways in a slow allowance race at Gulfstream after appearing overmatched on the Derby trail previously. He could be a pace factor I suppose but form and figures suggest that he needs – wait for it – a miracle to pull this off.

FORTE (6) looks to get an absolutely great trip in this spot. He’s got the pace to be forward and has plenty of finish. He would have been the Derby fav and on paper he’s likely the best of his generation. So why am I not excited about backing him? It comes down to two elements, the distance and the price. We haven’t seen him run farther than nine furlongs, and who knows if he’ll have the same punch going three-eighths more. His bloodlines are inconclusive but lean sprinty – as good of a sire as Violence is, this is his only Grade One-winning son going a mile or farther. The dam was a turf runner at her best going a mile, and we’ve seen no siblings. The recent works look strong. He’s the most likely winner but the value lies elsewhere.

HIT SHOW (7) is the other horse whose past-performance page just looks like a Belmont winner. Ran well in the Derby from an impossible post, attending the fast pace and sticking on well all things considered. Sire Candy Ride’s offspring can do anything, and he’s out of a Tapit dam who easily handled nine furlongs and wasn’t tested beyond that. I think the distance brings him forward and this is a good draw. He’s super live at double-digit odds.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE (8) will catch plenty of money and with good reason – he’s got the best form and figures in the race and has worked really well since the Derby. My issue with him is that re-watching the Derby, it looks like he goes there to win the race and he just kind of flattens out. Blinkers go on today, maybe with the idea of keeping him focused, but it’s also possible he didn’t want 10 furlongs, let alone 12. He’s extremely logical but another I don’t think will offer value in the win market.

RED ROUTE ONE (9) is a horse you can tell a story about. Regular readers will recall he was our each-way selection in the Preakness before First Mission scratched. With that rival out, no real pace developed and National Treasure was able to walk on the lead, compromising Red Route One’s chances. His blood and even running style are both reasons to be optimistic about the distance. He goes with an each-way chance once again but I’d want at least 25/1.

Peter Fornatale’s big-race verdict

An interesting race where the most likely winners aren’t the ones to bet in my view, at least not in the win pool. I’ll take each way shots with ARCANGELO and HIT SHOW. I’ll also look to back them up in exactas under Forte, Angel of Empire, and to a smaller degree Tapit Trice.