DoubleLine’s Gundlach says the Fed will break something if it sticks to its rate-hiking path
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DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into a recession if the central bank follows through on its rate-hiking path this year. “I think that if the Fed follows the path that they’re talking about, … they are going to break something,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s ” Closing Bell.” The Fed paused its hiking campaign in June, but forecast it will raise interest rates as high as 5.6% before 2023 is over. The so-called dot-plot released Wednesday projected two more increases left in 2023, if the central bank keeps its rate-hiking pace at quarter-point increments. The noted fixed income investor, whose firm managed $92 billion at the end of 2022, said a number of economic indicators are already flashing red. “There are so many indicators that are deeply in recessionary territory,” Gundlach said, pointing to weakening readings in ISM new orders and the purchasing managers’ index. “I’m hard pressed to find an indicator that’s strong.” Gundlach said he doesn’t think the Fed is going to be raising interest rates again as data are expected to deteriorate. “I think Jay Powell has a really difficult job right now,” Gundlach said. “I think he realizes that we’re at a turning point potentially, on the inflation situation and on the economy. … I think the Fed is overstating the inflation risk at this time.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the next gathering for the committee in July remains a “live” meeting, signaling that a quarter-point hike isn’t baked in yet. There are four policy meetings remaining in 2023. “We didn’t we didn’t make a decision about July. … Of course it came up in the meeting from time to time, but really the focus was on what to do today,” Powell said in a press conference Wednesday. “I would say … two things: One, a decision hasn’t been made. Two, I do expect that it will be a live meeting.”
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