July jobs report and more Big Tech earnings are in the week ahead after markets notch historic run for Dow
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More Big Tech earnings and the jobs report are in the week ahead as investors wrap up a strong week that included a historic run for the Dow Jones Industrial Average . The Dow and the S & P 500 notched their third straight week of gains on Friday . On Wednesday, the 30-stock Dow posted a 13-day advance that matched the index’s longest streak of gains going back to 1987. One more positive session would have tied the Dow with its record 14-day rally in 1897. Back then, Queen Victoria was still the reigning monarch in the United Kingdom. And, the index listed just 12 stocks in total, such as American Cotton Oil and American Sugar. Of those original names, General Electric remains in business with its name intact, though it was kicked out of the blue chip index in 2018. Even so, markets continued their upward momentum as more inflation data pointed toward signs of cooling, and earnings came in far better than feared. That added to the bull case that the U.S. economy can manage a soft landing. “While the economy isn’t like white hot, it ain’t bad,” said Kim Forrest, founder and chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. This week alone, investors digested Friday’s data for personal consumption expenditures price index that continued to show cooling inflation in June. The gross domestic product report showed the U.S. economy is growing faster than expected, and also suggested price pressures are easing. And, megacap tech stocks Alphabet and Meta gained more than 10% this week after their respective earnings beats. To top it off, the Federal Reserve hiked rates to their highest level in more than 22 years after passing a much-anticipated quarter-point hike. Even more important, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could pause here, taking a data-dependent approach going forward. “All of this fuels the buying frenzy, and it’s more than certain stocks now, right? It’s spreading out,” Forrest said. “So yeah, I think that this market is merited.” Jobs report out Friday Investors will digest the latest data from the July jobs report due out next Friday. Market participants are not expecting any major surprises from the report, which could continue to show solid results in what has been an extraordinarily strong labor market. The report could also hold some signs of easing in jobs growth as it had in June. Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 last month, lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 240,000. The unemployment rate was 3.6%, in line with expectations. “I don’t expect any huge surprise from this jobs report next week,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “Maybe it’s a little lighter. But I don’t think it’s going to be a huge surprise to the downside or the upside. I think it probably is a little bit more of the same.” Investors will be watching the wage numbers closely. Market bears worry that persistent wage growth could mean inflation will spiral higher, as it did in the 1970s and early 1980s. In those years, average wages typically jumped 7%, 8% or 9% year over year, according to the Pew Research Center. However, Bokeh’s Forrest said those concerns have yet to materialize. While wages have increased, she said they’re not driving the sort of price pressures that occurred during those high-inflation decades. “The wage inflation is not driving the inflation because people are slowly getting raises that allow them to kind of match the new pricing environment,” she said. Bokeh’s Forrest would like to see average hourly earnings rise 4.4% from the year-ago period, which is what they were in the June report, or lower. She’d also like to see the average work week stay around the 34-hour mark, or “the golden number for hours worked.” “Higher than that means things are getting hot, people are being overworked, working more, and that hiring will pick up,” Forrest said. “Less, it means people aren’t being worked as much and layoffs may occur.” Big Tech earnings continue with Apple, Amazon Wall Street is at about the halfway mark for second-quarter earnings season, with results thus far coming in stronger than anticipated. Of the 255 companies that have reported in the S & P 500, about 81% have posted positive surprises, according to FactSet. Earnings will continue to pour in next week, with key results from Big Tech companies Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Both companies, which are higher by more than 50% each this year, will have to justify their valuations amid criticism that they have gotten too frothy. “CEOs need to justify these valuation levels. And we’ve gotten some of them but not all, so rolling through the rest of the tech and communications, and basically the growthy names will be very important,” SoFi’s Young said. “Much like other quarters, the results are important, but the guidance is even more so because now when we look out a 12-month view, we’ve got 2024 in that picture as well,” Young added. Other companies will be monitored for any signs of weakness in the consumer. Bokeh’s Forrest said she’d keep an eye on the back-to-school trade, particularly in computer companies such as Apple or the semiconductors, which should get a boost as students require electronics in the fall. Chip company ON Semiconductor reports Monday, and Advanced Micro Devices posts results Tuesday. Outlook ahead Even with markets posting yet another positive week, market skeptics continue to urge traders to take caution, especially as the effects of tightening monetary policy start to make its way through the economy. For instance, there’s the decision by the Bank of Japan on Friday to ease its yield curve control , a move that SoFi’s Young said investors do not yet understand how it will affect markets. She also worried about the path forward for inflation. “I think inflation could prove to be kind of a tricky situation for the rest of the year, meaning we’ve gotten used to this linear decline since last summer in the inflation measures. It may not continue along that path,” Young said. “Now, it may not spike back up, but it could stay steady, if not rise a little bit given what’s happening with commodity prices right now.” “Momentum is a very, very strong force,” she said. “And I think it’s at play until there’s a reason for it to turn around.” Still, cooling inflation, strong jobs market and a resilient economy could spell a happy path for Wall Street. Bokeh’s Forrest said, “This would be the soft landing. The mythical soft landing.” Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday 9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI SA (July) 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed index (July) Earnings: ON Semiconductor , Arista Networks , Western Digital , Monolithic Power Systems Tuesday 9:45 a.m.: Markit PMI Manufacturing SA final (July) 10:00 a.m.: Construction Spending SA M/M (June) 10:00 a.m.: ISM Manufacturing SA (July) 10:00 a.m.: JOLTS Job Openings (June) Earnings: Merck & Co., Stanley Black & Decker , Caterpillar , Marriott International , Altria Group , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Pfizer , Marathon Petroleum , Molson Coors Beverage , SolarEdge Technologies , Advanced Micro Devices , Caesars Entertainment , Electronic Arts , Starbucks Wednesday 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Survey SA (July) Earnings: CVS Health , Fidelity National Information Services , Generac Holdings , Humana , The Kraft Heinz Co. , Yum! Brands , MetLife , Marathon Oil , Occidental Petroleum , PayPal Holdings , Qualcomm , Etsy , The Clorox Co ., Costco Wholesale , MGM Resorts International Thursday 8:30 a.m.: Continuing Jobless Claims SA (7/22) 8:30 a.m.: Initial claims SA (7/29) 9:45 a.m.: PMI Composite SA (Final) 9:45 a.m.: Markit PMI Services SA final (July) 10:00 a.m.: Durable Orders SA M/M final (June) 10:00 a.m.: Factory Orders SA M/M (June) 10:00 a.m.: ISM Services PMI SA (July) Earnings: EPAM Systems , News Corp ., Constellation Energy , Moderna , Warner Bros. Discovery , Hasbro , Iron Mountain , ConocoPhillips , Kellogg , Booking Holdings , Amazon.com , Expedia Group , Fortinet , Motorola Solutions , Apple , Monster Beverage Friday 8:30 a.m.: Hourly Earnings SA preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m.: Average Workweek SA preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m.: Manufacturing Payrolls SA (July) 8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm Payrolls SA (July) 8:30 a.m.: Private Nonfarm Payrolls SA (July) 8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Rate (July) Earnings: Dominion Energy
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